PATA releases 39 destination-specific forecast reports for 2020-2024

- A Monitor Desk Report 05 May, 2020 | 902 Views|-+
Dhaka: Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) has released a second issue of a suite of 39 destination-specific forecast reports for the period 2020-2024, sponsored by Visa, with updates in response to the current coronavirus pandemic.

Each report builds on the regional forecast by delving deeper into the changing dynamics of travel and tourism, in and across the Asia Pacific region at the single destination level. The reports also include additional data and insights from Euromonitor International.

Each of the 39 reports covers a specific destination in Asia Pacific and individually forecasts: annual visitor arrivals into each destination, by source market; annual arrivals from the destination across other Asia Pacific destinations; and aggregate visitor receipts, where data availability allows.

In addition, each report: estimates the income and price elasticities of tourism demand; highlights some key visitor trends over the forecast period; and analyses scheduled inbound flights and seats.

Each factor describes and details how demand preferences are shifting across the Asia Pacific region. Scheduled inbound international air seat capacity for example, shifts relatively quickly according to demand, so understanding where these shifts are occurring for the almost 1.2 billion inbound air seats scheduled for Asia Pacific destinations in 2019, is a useful barometer of potential demand that can translate into increased arrivals.

Obviously, with the closure of many international borders as well as airports and the grounding of many commercial aircraft – entire fleets in some cases – these capacity figures are undergoing dramatic changes. Even so, they will most likely rebound slightly ahead of visitor numbers and should be monitored to see when and where such capacity begins to expand.

It could be reasonably expected that intra-regional air capacity will be the first to show substantive growth during the early stages of recovery, so here the growth in capacity between regional origins and destinations, for both Legacy and Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs), will be a significant indicator to track.

Similarly, for the elasticities of both income and prices, where for example the sensitivity of a particular inbound market to price changes in a destination may hold strategic value in determining price-based programmes for that inbound market.

Income sensitivity also shows how markets may react to changes in their own relative incomes and again provides a metric worth valuing in better understanding a potential source market. Such indicators will be extremely useful in understanding the competitive position of destinations as they pursue recovering source markets in the near future.

“We are a heavily data-driven world and it is a focus on hard data that will offer a significant advantage to those destinations that best identify and cater to those source markets that first begin to travel again once this current pandemic is brought under control,” said Dr Mario Hardy, CEO, PATA.

“Budgets are likely to be very tight in the near-term, so a strong alignment of activity directed toward those source markets with the strongest potential for conversion to travel, will be essential. Knowing those markets and when they are likely to rebound with travel will be critical in delivering cost-effective results. The income and price elasticities as shown for many source markets will be an important factor in this regard."

He further mentioned, “This updated series of destination reports from the PATA Strategic Intelligence Centre is designed to present insights into the ever-present shifts and changes that occur in the travel and tourism sector in such a way that strategic actions can be better facilitated. This is particularly so when faced, as we are now, with the severe limitations to international tourism growth, brought on by COVD-19. There will be a recovery, of that we are sure – how and when that is likely to begin is one of the functions of these reports and is one that is well served by the ‘Asia Pacific Destination Forecasts 2020-2024’.”

To gain further insights and answers to questions related to the PATA Visitor Forecasts 2020-2024 and impacts of COVID-19, PATA will be organising a webinar on May 14, 2020 at 3 pm ICT under the title “Impact of COVID-19 on PATA Visitor Forecasts 2020-2024”. Participants will hear from guest speakers from the School of Hotel and Tourism Management at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University and Euromonitor International.

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