IATA cuts air cargo growth outlook over ME conflict
In its latest industry
outlook, IATA now expects air cargo volumes to reach 71.7 million tons in 2026,
representing only a 0.2 percent year-on-year increase. This marks a significant
downgrade from earlier projections made at its World Cargo Symposium in March,
when the industry body anticipated stronger expansion of around 2.6 percent,
based on cargo ton-kilometer (CTK) metrics.
The revision follows a
volatile year for air freight demand. Early in the conflict, global cargo
demand fell by 4.8 percent year-on-year, before rebounding by 4 percent the
following month as trade routes adjusted and capacity constraints reshaped
flows across major corridors.
Despite weaker volume
growth, revenues are expected to remain resilient. IATA forecasts cargo revenue
will rise to USD 162 billion in 2026, up from USD 151 billion in 2025, driven
largely by airlines recovering higher fuel and operating costs through pricing
adjustments.
Fuel costs remain a major
pressure point, with global jet fuel expenditure projected to climb sharply,
adding significant strain on airline balance sheets. While some of these costs
are being offset through higher yields and improved efficiency, IATA warns that
profitability will still decline across the sector.
Regional performance is
expected to vary widely. Asia-based carriers may benefit from rerouted traffic
away from disrupted Middle Eastern hubs, particularly on Europe–Asia lanes. In
contrast, Latin American markets could face softer export demand, while Middle
Eastern cargo hubs continue to experience capacity reductions and shifting
transit flows.
Europe is also expected
to see some impact from regulatory tightening on low-value e-commerce
shipments, which could weigh on overall freight volumes.
